A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
