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China has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.