Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
