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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.