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Within the immense confusion regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – they set a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.